Longitudinal Study Design

In longitudinal studies, researchers do not manipulate any variables or interfere with the environment. Instead, they simply conduct observations on the same group of subjects over a period of time.

These research studies can last as short as a week or as long as multiple years or even decades. Unlike cross-sectional studies that measure a moment in time, longitudinal studies last beyond a single moment, enabling researchers to discover cause-and-effect relationships between variables.

They are beneficial for recognizing any changes, developments, or patterns in the characteristics of a target population. Longitudinal studies are often used in clinical and developmental psychology to study shifts in behaviors, thoughts, emotions, and trends throughout a lifetime.

For example, a longitudinal study could be used to examine the progress and well-being of children at critical age periods from birth to adulthood.

The Harvard Study of Adult Development is one of the longest longitudinal studies to date. Researchers in this study have followed the same men group for over 80 years, observing psychosocial variables and biological processes for healthy aging and well-being in late life (see Harvard Second Generation Study).

Advantages

Allows researchers to look at changes over time

Because longitudinal studies observe variables over extended periods of time, researchers can use their data to study developmental shifts and understand how certain things change as we age.

High validation

Since objectives and rules for long-term studies are established before data collection, these studies are authentic and have high levels of validity.

Eliminates recall bias

Recall bias occurs when participants do not remember past events accurately or omit details from previous experiences.

Flexibility

The variables in longitudinal studies can change throughout the study. Even if the study was created to study a specific pattern or characteristic, the data collection could show new data points or relationships that are unique and worth investigating further.

Limitations

Costly and time-consuming

Longitudinal studies can take months or years to complete, rendering them expensive and time-consuming. Because of this, researchers tend to have difficulty recruiting participants, leading to smaller sample sizes.

Large sample size needed

Longitudinal studies tend to be challenging to conduct because large samples are needed for any relationships or patterns to be meaningful. Researchers are unable to generate results if there is not enough data.

Participants tend to drop out

Not only is it a struggle to recruit participants, but subjects also tend to leave or drop out of the study due to various reasons such as illness, relocation, or a lack of motivation to complete the full study.

This tendency is known as selective attrition and can threaten the validity of an experiment. For this reason, researchers using this approach typically recruit many participants, expecting a substantial number to drop out before the end.

Report bias is possible

Longitudinal studies will sometimes rely on surveys and questionnaires, which could result in inaccurate reporting as there is no way to verify the information presented.

Examples

• LeMare and Audet (2006) conducted a longitudinal study on the physical growth and health of 36 Romanian orphans adopted by Canadian families and compared them to a group of children raised in normal Canadian families.
  • Data were collected for each child at three-time points: at 11 months after adoption, at 4.5 years of age and at 10.5 years of age. The first two sets of results showed that the adoptees were behind the non-institutionalised group however by 10.5 years old there was no difference between the two groups. The Romanian orphans had caught up with the children raised in normal Canadian families.
• The role of positive psychology constructs in predicting mental health and academic achievement in children and adolescents (Marques Pais-Ribeiro, & Lopez, 2011)
• The correlation between dieting behavior and the development of bulimia nervosa (Stice et al., 1998)
• The stress of educational bottlenecks negatively impacting students’ wellbeing (Cruwys, Greenaway, & Haslam, 2015)
• The effects of job insecurity on psychological health and withdrawal (Sidney & Schaufeli, 1995)
• The relationship between loneliness, health, and mortality in adults aged 50 years and over (Luo et al., 2012)
• The influence of parental attachment and parental control on early onset of alcohol consumption in adolescence (Van der Vorst et al., 2006)
• The relationship between religion and health outcomes in medical rehabilitation patients (Fitchett et al., 1999)

Goals of Longitudinal Data and Longitudinal Research

The objectives of longitudinal data collection and research as outlined by Baltes and Nesselroade (1979):

1. Identify intraindividual change: Examine changes at the individual level over time, including long-term trends or short-term fluctuations. Requires multiple measurements and individual-level analysis.
2. Identify interindividual differences in intraindividual change: Evaluate whether changes vary across individuals and relate that to other variables. Requires repeated measures for multiple individuals plus relevant covariates.
3. Analyze interrelationships in change: Study how two or more processes unfold and influence each other over time. Requires longitudinal data on multiple variables and appropriate statistical models.
4. Analyze causes of intraindividual change: This objective refers to identifying factors or mechanisms that explain changes within individuals over time. For example, a researcher might want to understand what drives a person’s mood fluctuations over days or weeks. Or what leads to systematic gains or losses in one’s cognitive abilities across the lifespan.
5. Analyze causes of interindividual differences in intraindividual change: Identify mechanisms that explain within-person changes and differences in changes across people. Requires repeated data on outcomes and covariates for multiple individuals plus dynamic statistical models.

How to Perform a Longitudinal Study

When beginning to develop your longitudinal study, you must first decide if you want to collect your own data or use data that has already been gathered.

Using already collected data will save you time, but it will be more restricted and limited than collecting it yourself. When collecting your own data, you can choose to conduct either a retrospective or prospective study.

In a retrospective study, you are collecting data on events that have already occurred. You can examine historical information, such as medical records, in order to understand the past. In a prospective study, on the other hand, you are collecting data in real-time. Prospective studies are more common for psychology research.

Once you determine the type of longitudinal study you will conduct, you then must determine how, when, where, and on whom the data will be collected.

A standardized study design is vital for efficiently measuring a population. Once a study design is created, researchers must maintain the same study procedures over time to uphold the validity of the observation.

A schedule should be maintained, complete results should be recorded with each observation, and observer variability should be minimized.

Researchers must observe each subject under the same conditions to compare them. In this type of study design, each subject is the control.

Methodological Considerations

Important methodological considerations include testing measurement invariance of constructs across time, appropriately handling missing data, and using accelerated longitudinal designs that sample different age cohorts over overlapping time periods.

Testing measurement invariance

Testing measurement invariance involves evaluating whether the same construct is being measured in a consistent, comparable way across multiple time points in longitudinal research.

This includes assessing configural, metric, and scalar invariance through confirmatory factor analytic approaches. Ensuring invariance gives more confidence when drawing inferences about change over time.

Missing data

Missing data can occur during initial sampling if certain groups are underrepresented or fail to respond.

Attrition over time is the main source – participants dropping out for various reasons. The consequences of missing data are reduced statistical power and potential bias if dropout is nonrandom.

Handling missing data appropriately in longitudinal studies is critical to reducing bias and maintaining power.

It is important to minimize attrition by tracking participants, keeping contact info up to date, engaging them, and providing incentives over time.

Techniques like maximum likelihood estimation and multiple imputation are better alternatives to older methods like listwise deletion. Assumptions about missing data mechanisms (e.g., missing at random) shape the analytic approaches taken.

Accelerated longitudinal designs

Accelerated longitudinal designs purposefully create missing data across age groups.

Cohort effects

A cohort refers to a group born in the same year or time period. Cohort effects occur when different cohorts show differing trajectories over time.

Cohort effects can bias results if not accounted for, especially in accelerated longitudinal designs which assume cohort equivalence.

Detecting cohort effects is important but can be challenging as they are confounded with age and time of measurement effects.

Cohort effects can also interfere with estimating other effects like retest effects. This happens because comparing groups to estimate retest effects relies on cohort equivalence.

Overall, researchers need to test for and control cohort effects which could otherwise lead to invalid conclusions. Careful study design and analysis is required.

Retest effects

Retest effects refer to gains in performance that occur when the same or similar test is administered on multiple occasions.

For example, familiarity with test items and procedures may allow participants to improve their scores over repeated testing above and beyond any true change.

Specific examples include:

• Memory tests – Learning which items tend to be tested can artificially boost performance over time
• Cognitive tests – Becoming familiar with the testing format and particular test demands can inflate scores
• Survey measures – Remembering previous responses can bias future responses over multiple administrations
• Interviews – Comfort with the interviewer and process can lead to increased openness or recall

To estimate retest effects, performance of retested groups is compared to groups taking the test for the first time. Any divergence suggests inflated scores due to retesting rather than true change.

If unchecked in analysis, retest gains can be confused with genuine intraindividual change or interindividual differences.

This undermines the validity of longitudinal findings. Thus, testing and controlling for retest effects are important considerations in longitudinal research.

Data Analysis

Longitudinal data involves repeated assessments of variables over time, allowing researchers to study stability and change. A variety of statistical models can be used to analyze longitudinal data, including latent growth curve models, multilevel models, latent state-trait models, and more.

Latent growth curve models allow researchers to model intraindividual change over time. For example, one could estimate parameters related to individuals’ baseline levels on some measure, linear or nonlinear trajectory of change over time, and variability around those growth parameters. These models require multiple waves of longitudinal data to estimate.

Multilevel models are useful for hierarchically structured longitudinal data, with lower-level observations (e.g., repeated measures) nested within higher-level units (e.g., individuals). They can model variability both within and between individuals over time.

Latent state-trait models decompose the covariance between longitudinal measurements into time-invariant trait factors, time-specific state residuals, and error variance. This allows separating stable between-person differences from within-person fluctuations.

There are many other techniques like latent transition analysis, event history analysis, and time series models that have specialized uses for particular research questions with longitudinal data. The choice of model depends on the hypotheses, timescale of measurements, age range covered, and other factors.

In general, these various statistical models allow investigation of important questions about developmental processes, change and stability over time, causal sequencing, and both between- and within-person sources of variability. However, researchers must carefully consider the assumptions behind the models they choose.

Longitudinal vs. Cross-Sectional Studies

Longitudinal studies and cross-sectional studies are two different observational study designs where researchers analyze a target population without manipulating or altering the natural environment in which the participants exist.

Yet, there are apparent differences between these two forms of study. One key difference is that longitudinal studies follow the same sample of people over an extended period of time, while cross-sectional studies look at the characteristics of different populations at a given moment in time.

Longitudinal studies tend to require more time and resources, but they can be used to detect cause-and-effect relationships and establish patterns among subjects.

On the other hand, cross-sectional studies tend to be cheaper and quicker but can only provide a snapshot of a point in time and thus cannot identify cause-and-effect relationships.

Both studies are valuable for psychologists to observe a given group of subjects. Still, cross-sectional studies are more beneficial for establishing associations between variables, while longitudinal studies are necessary for examining a sequence of events.